Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 21.056358 25.279056 29.912985 35.347536 41.517318 48.275222 56.207203
2025-10-12 15.185253 20.809886 27.596076 36.261249 46.898616 59.396335 75.045588
2025-10-19 11.762037 17.938949 25.968134 36.896962 51.090948 68.599856 91.498847
2025-10-26 9.582142 16.048195 25.005729 37.857225 55.316193 77.683111 107.917479
2025-11-02 7.579555 13.932224 23.294575 37.409311 57.390933 83.871687 120.720126
2025-11-09 6.218511 12.470269 22.221007 37.583050 60.121196 90.862110 134.687962
2025-11-16 5.065156 11.088609 21.023123 37.349866 62.119285 96.811172 147.370110
2025-11-23 4.013489 9.645633 19.490700 36.376876 62.858844 100.918808 157.570743
2025-11-30 3.494057 9.070815 19.288720 37.415724 66.583042 109.335613 173.994303
2025-12-07 2.835747 8.067100 18.190356 36.849612 67.744100 114.017834 185.224068
2025-12-14 2.408385 7.447338 17.685123 37.194509 70.296336 120.789281 199.620421
2025-12-21 1.853825 6.387207 16.183538 35.634938 69.631187 122.632415 206.808966
2025-12-28 1.631004 6.107407 16.239207 36.972342 73.991249 132.608338 226.835261
2026-01-04 1.394054 5.727132 16.041634 37.837590 77.636840 141.681325 245.922168
2026-01-11 1.179291 5.337160 15.756249 38.489486 80.924291 150.288154 264.549112
2026-01-18 1.018603 5.053959 15.659270 39.481284 84.833350 160.002015 285.138145
2026-01-25 0.807422 4.518699 14.882079 39.018516 86.093023 165.441985 299.226155
2026-02-01 0.663328 4.152967 14.446381 39.198012 88.496658 172.806733 316.504518
2026-02-08 0.528677 3.753150 13.847446 38.957099 90.078591 178.826012 331.780561
2026-02-15 0.396333 3.277566 12.947882 37.951734 90.127969 182.226591 342.917145
2026-02-22 0.343783 3.145538 12.978044 39.025141 94.212393 192.623562 365.614777
2026-03-01 0.262067 2.800725 12.319578 38.440224 95.005696 197.347108 379.156318
2026-03-08 0.213763 2.606108 12.074152 38.796585 97.669181 205.396110 398.345774